Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-05 1.635503 2.159793 2.870424 3.929819 5.515481 7.880948e+00 1.184162e+01
2025-01-12 1.014823 1.510244 2.295982 3.706726 6.356116 1.155455e+01 2.392271e+01
2025-01-19 0.661406 1.075366 1.815644 3.361611 6.902717 1.594388e+01 4.756513e+01
2025-01-26 0.487623 0.859765 1.604903 3.413383 8.533812 2.636215e+01 1.326821e+02
2025-02-02 0.391511 0.746548 1.541910 3.802184 11.941623 5.410078e+01 6.540009e+02
2025-02-09 0.327089 0.671407 1.531273 4.403423 17.935423 1.356621e+02 9.548300e+03
2025-02-16 0.265085 0.576600 1.425805 4.680388 24.366687 3.302203e+02 2.276686e+06
2025-02-23 0.209142 0.474558 1.246880 4.540647 29.121276 7.188480e+02 NaN
2025-03-02 0.164999 0.386772 1.065858 4.223403 32.478028 1.505718e+03 NaN
2025-03-09 0.141284 0.345581 1.015057 4.521854 45.630221 7.258293e+03 NaN
2025-03-16 0.121597 0.308724 0.960161 4.771552 63.562971 6.988055e+04 NaN
2025-03-23 0.107225 0.282626 0.932191 5.207247 96.216356 2.479928e+07 NaN
2025-03-30 0.093765 0.256256 0.895703 5.643222 151.810264 NaN NaN
2025-04-06 0.078854 0.220102 0.796301 5.401647 187.313383 NaN NaN
2025-04-13 0.065854 0.186466 0.690730 4.934294 206.912689 NaN NaN
2025-04-20 0.057991 0.168277 0.649394 5.085394 307.499175 NaN NaN
2025-04-27 0.053193 0.159452 0.650285 5.791533 630.128066 NaN NaN
2025-05-04 0.049639 0.154041 0.667147 6.879582 1687.541728 NaN NaN
2025-05-11 0.045098 0.143305 0.647213 7.423765 3771.444725 NaN NaN
2025-05-18 0.039937 0.128527 0.593811 7.227305 5909.918146 NaN NaN
2025-05-25 0.035088 0.113736 0.532322 6.705102 7439.204355 NaN NaN
2025-06-01 0.032434 0.107323 0.521489 7.270002 23601.631754 NaN NaN
2025-06-08 0.029949 0.100902 0.506826 7.751282 94592.748124 NaN NaN